考虑结构特性的化工事故关键致因网络分析*

Network analysis on key causes of chemical accidents considering structural characteristics

摘要:

为揭示化工事故发生机理，考虑事故链中因素的因果关系与事故网络的结构特性，基于复杂网络研究化工事故的关键致因因素,以事故案例中因素与结果为网络节点，因素间的因果关系为边，建立化工事故网络模型，分析网络中节点的度值、结构洞,构建化工事故凝聚网络，分析凝聚节点之间的因果关系。结果表明：在化工事故网络中存在8种致因因素，人的不安全行为与环境的不安全状态占比高达87.5%。通过结构洞分析可有效找出网络中具有较强影响力的潜在致因因素；通过凝聚网络分析，人的不安全行为致使设备的不安全状态与环境的不安全状态连接比例高达29%，存在显著的因果关系。

Abstract:

In order to reveal the occurrence mechanism of chemical accidents,considering the causal relationship of factors in the accident chain and the structural characteristics of accident network,the key causal factors of chemical accidents were studied based on the complex network.A network model of chemical accidents was constructed with the factors and results of accident cases as network nodes and the causal relationship between factors as edges,and the degree and structural holes of the nodes in the network were analyzed.A cohesion network of chemical accidents was constructed to analyze the causal relationship between cohesion nodes.The results showed that there were eight causal factors in the chemical accident network,and the unsafe behavior of human and the unsafe state of environment accounted for as much as 87.5% of the total.The potential casual factors with strong influence in the network could be effectively identified through the structural hole analysis.Through the cohesion network analysis,the proportion of unsafe behavior of human causing the unsafe state of equipment and unsafe state of environment was as high as 29%,and there was a significant causal relationship.