基于传染病模型的群体活动中恐慌心理蔓延研究*

Research on spread of panic psychology in group activities based on infectious disease model

摘要:

为研究人群中恐慌心理蔓延规律,基于传染病传播模型，构建NPCN（Normal-Panic-Cool-Normal）恐慌心理蔓延模型，通过加入干预因子得到优化模型，对NPCN模型及优化模型进行数值模拟，并对模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明:恐慌人群比例随恐慌率α和冷静损失率γ增大而增大，随冷静率β增大而减小；在干预因子ω和ψ作用下，恐慌人群比例P明显下降，说明采取及时干预措施对恐慌心理蔓延抑制效果较好。

Abstract:

In order to study the spread laws of panic psychology in the crowd,a Normal-Panic-Cool-Normal (NPCN) model for the spread of panic psychology was constructed based on the spread model of infectious disease.An optimized model was obtained through adding the intervention factors,then the numerical simulation was conducted by using the NPC model and optimized model,and the simulation results were compared and analyzed.The results showed that the proportion of panic crowd increased with the increase of panic rate α and calmness loss rate γ,but decreased with the increase of calmness rate β.Under the effect of intervention factors ω and ψ,the proportion of panic crowd P decreased obviously,which presented that the timely intervention measures had better effect on inhibiting the spread of panic psychology.